Trust is complicated. But for some reason, online trust mechanisms assume it is outrageously simple. For example, firewalls imply that once you’re in the network, you’re trusted. It’s baked into the framing of the problem. Similarly, Trust Frameworks assume that … Continue reading →
Trust is complicated. But for some reason, online trust mechanisms assume it is outrageously simple. <img decoding="async" class="alignleft size-medium wp-image-980" title="black and white handshake" src="https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/black-and-white-handshake.dreamstime_18851240-300x225.jpg" alt="black and white handshake" width="210" height="158" srcset="https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/black-and-white-handshake.dreamstime_18851240-300x225.jpg 300w, https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/black-and-white-handshake.dreamstime_18851240.jpg 480w" sizes="(max-width: 210px) 100vw, 210px" /> For example, firewalls imply that once you’re in the network, you’re trusted. It’s baked into the framing of the problem. Similarly, Trust Frameworks assume that once you are in the Framework, you’re trusted (although you could build a framework that is dynamic). Even a user directed approach like Facebook Connect assumes that once you click “allow”, you trust that website to use your information appropriately, essentially forever… even if you revoke that permission later. Trust isn’t broad-based and it isn’t static. It is directed and dynamic. Think about it. We don’t trust our accountant to babysit and we don’t trust our babysitter with our finances. Trust is given for specific purposes and in specific contexts and it changes as quickly as we can fire that babysitter. <img decoding="async" class="alignright size-medium wp-image-983" title="multiple multi color handshakes" src="https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/multi-multi-color-handshakes.dreamstime_4062545-300x300.jpg" alt="multiple multi color handshakes" width="180" height="180" srcset="https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/multi-multi-color-handshakes.dreamstime_4062545-300x300.jpg 300w, https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/multi-multi-color-handshakes.dreamstime_4062545-150x150.jpg 150w, https://blog.joeandrieu.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/multi-multi-color-handshakes.dreamstime_4062545.jpg 480w" sizes="(max-width: 180px) 100vw, 180px" />We trust the receptionist at the doctor’s office with our written medical histories because he is behind the counter, apparently employed by the doctor who needs that information to do her job. We trust the bartender with our credit card because she’s behind the bar serving drinks and we accept that it will be kept safe and not used until we close out the bill. But we wouldn’t give that receptionist our medical history if we met him in a bar later that evening, and we wouldn’t give that bartender our credit card if we met her as a fellow patient in the doctor’s office the next day. We trust people to do specific things—or not to do certain other things—and that trust is based on the context in which we give it and the state of our relationship with the trusted party. That means that just like our relationships, trust changes over time. Trust systems need ways to discover that trust should change and allow for that change to be managed. Reagan put it perfectly, “Trust but verify.” When verification fails, trust changes. Whether it’s a romantic partner, a subcontractor, a company, or top-secret agent, trust is granted incrementally. When it is lost, it is often destroyed. Incremental trust happens all the time. We don’t like logging in just to view a web page, but we don’t mind it to see confidential information like order history. We aren’t comfortable giving our credit card just to enter a store–the relationship isn’t ready for that yet–but we don’t mind once we start the check out process. When we lose trust, we sometimes throw the jerks out on the street. Betrayal is an unfortunate fact of life; it also has great significance to how we handle online trust. How do we “break up” with service providers? Revoking consent and demanding our data purged is an obvious need, but one that is often obscured or impossible. As our relationships change, our trust changes. Yet our digital trust models mostly don’t. Online trust models assume that trust is binary, broad, and stable—that you either have it or you don’t—for one simple reason: because it’s easy to implement. When we log into a website with Facebook Connect, Facebook verifies that we want to share information with the website. However, there is no way for us to modify the permissions. We can’t say what use is allowed and what isn’t. We can’t pick and choose which data they get. We can’t ask for additional consideration. And we can’t put a time limit on access. Facebook’s interface presumes all-or-nothing and forever, for anything. But what we’d really like is something like this: “You can write to my wall, but only for messages I explicitly approve. You can have my email address but only for account maintenance, not for “special offers” from you or your associates. You can’t have access to my home address. You can use the photos tagged “public” for one month after I post them, but I want a revenue share from any money you make from them. Ask me another time about reading my inbox.” In order for our trust model to support transactions like this, it needs to be specific and flexible. It should not only let us direct our trust to specific purposes, it should make it easy to moderate that trust as our relationships evolve. Lawrence Lessig famously said “Code is Law“. Trust models like Facebook’s, and the code behind it, make it nearly impossible for sites to allow the kind of user-driven permissions we need. While our relationships evolve, the current platforms are actually too brittle for developers to implement flexible, user-respecting approaches to privacy and permission unless they are willing to jump through hoops and hack around arbitrary technical limitations. We need a new code base that actually makes it easy for developers to do the right thing, rather than code that enshrines restrictive and disempowering practices as strongly as if the law made it mandatory. Because the one thing I know is that tomorrow will be different, and the harder it is for developers to support changing relationships, the harder it is for the entire ecosystem to respond to changing needs. In short: Stop the monolithic permissioning ceremonies! Trust evolves. Deal with it. Until we do, online trust will remain brittle and untenable for our most important, powerful, and profitable relationships.
World Economic Forum and Personal Data as an Asset Class
At this last week’s Personal Data Deep Dive in Palo Alto, I had a chance to talk with some of the folks working with the World Economic Forum about their recent report Personal Data: The Emergence of a New Asset Class. … Continue reading →
At this last week’s Personal Data Deep Dive in Palo Alto, I had a chance to talk with some of the folks working with the World Economic Forum about their recent report Personal Data: The Emergence of a New Asset Class. While I remain concerned about how the institutions of globalization might co-opt personal data to further their own ends, it almost certainly isn’t as bad as recently discussed on the Project VRM mailing list. My realization: of course WEF would see data as an asset class. If it weren’t, it wouldn’t even make it onto their radar. Complaining about the WEF seeing personal data as an asset is a bit like complaining that Mozart sees everything as music. Sure, it might be a limited framework and might be abused if applied too broadly, but it’s perhaps the most real way for the WEF to think about how personal data will lead to changes in the global economy. It is worth understanding that the paper is an early step in acculturating Fortune 1000 CEOs to a new reality about user-driven services, volunteered personal information, and the entire VRM gestalt. It’s a baby step. But it is a step. Indeed, the folks at the workshop were well aware of the kind of reaction they are bound to get from communities like VRM. Bottom up groups tends to distrust top-down institutions. Fair enough. But think about it from the perspective of the folks inside the WEF that are fighting the good fight, not just because it’s moral or politic, but because it is perhaps the only viable route beyond the information overload facing our entire information infrastructure. Those folks need to light the minds of global business leaders without igniting fear that the house is on fire.
With over 150 million people using Facebook Connect every month at over 1 million websites, Facebook has ushered in a new era, as the world’s largest personal data store. Personal Data Stores Personal data stores allow individuals to share online … Continue reading →
With over 150 million people using Facebook Connect every month at over 1 million websites, Facebook has ushered in a new era, as the world’s largest personal data store. Personal Data Stores Personal data stores allow individuals to share online data with service providers. Facebook Connect users can give third-party web sites like Digg, Amazon, and YouTube access to information stored at Facebook, turning Facebook into a personal data store for over 500 million people. What makes personal data stores special is the seamless sharing with websites for real-time personalization of the web. It’s more than just file back-up or synchronization. It’s not just publishing “content” to our friends or the public. Personal data stores allow us to bring our information to websites when we want to. It’s a way to treat the user as the point of integration. Personal data stores can be anywhere, shared with websites whenever we want. Consider giving FedexKinko‘s a link to a Flickr account so they can download photos to print a new calendar. Or giving a new doctor permission to access our personal health history rather than filling out a paper form while we sit in the waiting room. Or giving a website access to our Outlook contact list on our desktop computer so they can give us birthday reminders and gift suggestions. The key is user-managed access, wherever the data lives. Facebook Connect gives this kind of access control over all the data we store at Facebook, enabling web-wide personalization built around the individual. Mash-ups In recent years, mash-ups and real-time APIs have made it easier and easier for companies to combine information from different services into a single user experience. Instead of building bigger and more complicated proprietary data silos, companies take advantage of services like Google Maps and IP-address geolocation, using real-time information to enhance their websites. Some service are even built around other companies’ data: Twitter clients like Seesmic and Tweetdeck, which access our Twitter data on our behalf; Trillian, which works with various instant messaging networks; and Mint, which pulls in our financial data from hundreds of websites. The “real-time web” is constructed on the fly, using linked data and real-time APIs to dynamically customize services for each of us. Personal data stores let us bring our own data to the mash-up party. Not only do we have better control over who sees what, we can provide more timely, higher quality data than service providers can get from other sources. Effective integration with personal data stores means no more ads for that car we’ve already bought; no more recommendations based on false assumptions. Unfortunately, data in the wild is constantly becoming outdated, miscopied, and misconstrued, because that’s the best companies can do using the billions of dollars worth of proprietary data that’s gathered about us rather than provided by us. Personal data stores easily allow individuals to give the most relevant, most up-to-date information to just those companies we want to do business with. That means not just better data, but more intimate relationships with our favorite companies and organizations. Perhaps the most liberating aspect of personal data stores is that everyone gets to have as many as we want. We all have our favorite websites for different online activities. As those sites open up their data with a user-driven permissions mechanism, they become personal data stores. So, whether it’s YouTube for videos, Flickr for Photos, Foursquare for location updates, TripIt for travel plans, or RunKeeper for exercise data, we get to bring our best data with us wherever we go. Savvy websites pull in this high quality data to personalize our visits, while those with unique data open it up for use elsewhere to maximize value to their users, which is exactly what Facebook is doing with Facebook Connect. Facebook Connect Facebook Connect makes this kind of access simple for everyone, with industry changing adoption rates. Over 66% of the top 100 websites and over 1 million total websites now integrate with Facebook in some way. Nearly 1/3 of Facebook users—over 150 million people—use Facebook Connect every month. Every time we do, we give websites access to information stored in our Facebook accounts, such as our name, gender, names of our friends, and all the posts currently on our wall or posted by us. It’s an archetypal personal data store, with highly credible and timely data in the form of our friend list and our status updates. Sure, Facebook Connect is still far too limited in the amount of information we can store and we lack control over how that information gets used… but architecturally, Facebook has changed the game for a vast portion of the World Wide Web. To find out what information Facebook is sharing, I built a website called “I Shared What?!?“, an information sharing simulator for Facebook. The site uses javascript and Facebook Connect to display everything it can get from Facebook. Visitors see in specific detail exactly what they share when hitting the “allow” button in the Facebook Connect permissions dialog. Facebook uses open standard technology to bring mash-ups to a new level, built on information provided directly by the user, in real-time, with minimal fuss or bother. There are shortcomings, of course. A lot of them, but I’ll save those for future posts. For now, think of Facebook as the 800 pound icebreaker of a new way for companies to connect with their customers. To this veteran VRM evangelist, Facebook has done more in 2010 to usher in the era of the personal data store than anyone, ever. In one fell swoop, Facebook launched a World Wide Web built around the individual instead of websites, introducing the personal data store to 500 million people and over one million websites. Unexpectedly, Facebook has moved VRM from a conversation about envisioning a future to one about deployed services with real users, being adopted by real companies, today. We still have a lot of work to do to figure out how to make this all work right—legally, financially, technically—but it’s illuminating and inspiring to see the successes and failures of real, widely-deployed services. Seeing what Amazon or Rotten Tomatos or Pandora do with information from a real personal data store moves the conversation forward in ways no theoretical argument can. There remain significant privacy issues and far too much proprietary lock-in, but for the first time, we can point to a mainstream service and say “Like that! That’s what we’ve been talking about. But different!”
Looking for feedback on pRFP and Information Sharing
At the VRM+CRM workshop last month, we (the Kantara ISWG) released two papers for comment. One on the Personal Request For Proposal (pRFP) Engagement Model and the other the Information Sharing Report. The first is a look at a the … Continue reading →
At the VRM+CRM workshop last month, we (the Kantara ISWG) released two papers for comment. One on the Personal Request For Proposal (pRFP) Engagement Model and the other the Information Sharing Report. The first is a look at a the negotiation stage in the Car Buying Engagement Model, which paints a detailed picture of one person’s experience through the entire Customer-Supplier Engagement Framework for a new car. Think of this as “car buying VRM style.” In the pRFP Engagement Model, we do a deep dive on how Sally would use a pRFP broker to buy a new car. The second is a report placing Information Sharing in the global context. Based on a comprehensive literature review by Mark Lizar, the ISWG takes a look at the historical conversations about privacy and data protection to illustrate how we see Information Sharing as part of an emerging solution to managing the increasing risks and challenges of individuals sharing personal information online. If you have an interest, please take a look and give us some feedback. We’ll be incorporating input from the comment period starting next week, September 13, 2010. Extended to September 27, 2010. I hope to hear from you.
Perhaps the most powerful form of asymmetric information is missing from JP Rangaswami’s post addressing whether the web is making us dumber. I agree with the core point of JP’s article, but I think he oversimplifies the argument on asymmetry … Continue reading →
Perhaps the most powerful form of asymmetric information is missing from JP Rangaswami’s post addressing whether the web is making us dumber. I agree with the core point of JP’s article, but I think he oversimplifies the argument on asymmetry in a way that misses something important about the power of information. JP defines four types of informational asymmetry, which he argues is key for information to have power: Asymmetry-by-access — You can get it, they can’t. Asymmetry-in-creation — You create it, you can control access or have unique benefit from it. Asymmetry-in-education — The information may be symmetrically available, but only “experts” can make effective use of it.This could also be called asymmetry-by-capability: the capability to utilize information more effectively than others. Asymmetry-by-design — Take abundant information and design a system to create scarcity. For example, the iPhone (or Android) app store as the only – (or dominant) way to get new apps on your phone. JP goes on to argue that This approach, asymmetry-by-creation, and its alter ego, asymmetry-by-design, are about creating artificial scarcity. This is fundamentally doomed. I’ve said it many times. Every artificial scarcity will be met by an equal and opposite artificial abundance. With all due respect, I must politely disagree. At first, I thought it was a flaw in the argument about asymmetry, but then I realized it was perhaps because I was considering a fifth asymmetry that simply didn’t fit JP’s mold. Asymmetry-by-choice – The information is shared with mutual agreement by all parties to respect certain limits, typically requested by the discloser, although often required by regulators. This asymmetry is typically bootstrapped from asymmetry-by-creation and maintained as asymmetry-by-access. One example: I tell my therapist things because I know they won’t get revealed. The therapist agrees to keep that information in confidence because she knows that if she doesn’t, I won’t reveal it. After the fact, she keeps her promise because she knows that the ethical, legal, and financial consequences aren’t worth breaking it. This is a good thing. A second example: non-disclosure agreements (NDAs). A receiving party agrees to respect the rights in confidential information in order to better understand the disclosing party’s business. Normally, the discloser wouldn’t be comfortable disclosing certain information, but that would prevent the parties from pursuing mutually beneficial business interests. Only with assurances by the receiving party is the disclosing party comfortable revealing information that ultimately, may be vital to forging a more sustainable, more meaningful, and more profitable relationship. The NDA allows the two parties to continue the conversation with a certain level of expectation about subsequent use of the disclosed information. This is a good thing. These types of voluntary acceptance of asymmetry in information are the fabric of relationships. We trust people with sensitive information when we believe they will respect our privacy. I don’t see abundance undoing that. Either the untrustworthy recipient develops a reputation for indescretion and is cut off, or the entire system would have to preclude any privacy at all. In that latter scenario, it would become impossible to share our thoughts and ideas, our dreams and passions, without divulging it to the world. We would stop sharing and shut down those thoughts altogether rather than allow ourselves to become vulnerable to passing strangers and the powers that be. Such a world of totalitarian omniscience would be unbearable and unsustainable. Human beings need to be able to trust one another. Friends need to be able to talk to friends without broadcasting to the world. Otherwise, we are just cogs in a vast social order over which we have almost no control. Asymmetry-by-choice, whether formalized in an NDA, regulated by law, or just understood between close friends, is part of the weft and weave of modern society. The power of asymmetry-by-choice is the power of relationships. When we can trust someone else with our secrets, we gain. When we can’t, we are limited to just whatever we can do with that information in isolation. This is a core part of what we are doing with VRM and the ISWG. Vendor Relationship Management (VRM) is about helping users get the most out of their relationships with vendors. And those relationships depend on Vendors respecting the directives of their customers, especially around asymmetric information. The Information Sharing Work Group (ISWG) is developing scenarios and legal agreements that enable individuals to share information with service providers on their own terms. The notion of a personal data store is predicated on providing privileged information to service providers, dynamically, with full assurance and the backing of the law. The receiving service providers can then provide enhanced, customized services based on the content of that data store… and individuals can rest assured that law abiding service providers will respect the terms they’ve requested. I think the value of this asymmetry-by-choice is about artificial scarcity, in that it is constructed through voluntary agreement rather than the mechanics/electronics of the situation, but it is also about voluntary relationships, and that is why it is so powerful and essential.
Beyond Data Ownership to Information Sharing
The question of who owns our data on the Internet is a challenging problem. It can also be a red herring, distracting us from building the next generation of online services. The term “ownership” simply brings too much baggage from … Continue reading →
The question of who owns our data on the Internet is a challenging problem. It can also be a red herring, distracting us from building the next generation of online services. The term “ownership” simply brings too much baggage from the physical world, suggesting a win-lose, us-verses-them mentality that retards the development of rich, powerful services based on shared information. Anyone up for sacred cow cheeseburgers? I’m a member–and a big fan–of Steve Holcombe‘s “Data Ownership in the Cloud” LinkedIn group and I love the efforts of the Dataportability guys and am a big supporter of the Privacy and Public Policy work group at Kantara. There is a lot of good work being done by folks trying to figure out how to give people greater control over the use of data about them (privacy) and gain access to data they use or created (dataportability). Unfortunately, sometimes the arguments behind these efforts are based on who owns–or who should own–the data. This is not just an intellectual debate or political rallying call, it often undermines our common efforts to build a better system. Consider this: Privacy as secrecy is dead Data sharing is data copying Transaction data has dual ownership Yours, mine, & ours: Reality is complicated Taking back ownership is confrontational Privacy as secrecy is dead First, the data is pretty much already out there. The issue isn’t “How do we keep data from bad people,” it’s “How do we keep people from doing bad things with data?” DRM and crypto and related technology as the sole means to prevent data leakage and data abuse are failures. Sooner or later, the bad guys break the system and get the data. Sure, there are smart things we can do to protect ourselves. Just like we wear seatbelts and lock our front doors, we should also use SSL and multi-factor authentication, but we can’t count on technology to keep our secrets. We need solutions that work even when the secret is out. In fact, privacy isn’t about information we keep secret. It is about information we have revealed to someone else with expectation of discretion, e.g., when we tell our doctor about our sexual activities. It’s no longer a secret from the Doctor, but because it is private, we have rules that keep the information from being used inappropriately. Most of the time, with most doctors, it works. Those few who break those rules are dealt with through legal means, both civil and criminal, as well as social approbation. So, because we inherently need to release data to different parties at different times, we can’t control it through secrecy alone. Instead, we need to build a framework for preventing abuse when others do have access to sensitive information. Like in the case with our doctor, we want our service providers to have the data they need to provide the highest quality services. Data sharing is data copying Second, in the world of atoms, there can only be one of a thing, which is the reverse of the world of bits. With atoms, even if there are copies, each copy is itself a singular thing. Selling, transferring, or stealing a thing precludes the original owner from continuing to use it. This isn’t true for information, which can easily be sold, transfered, and stolen without disturbing the original version. In fact, the entire Internet is basically a copy machine, copying IP packets from router to router, as we “send” images, web pages, and emails from user to user and machine to machine–each time a new copy is created whether or not the originating copy is deleted. To think of bits as if they were ownable property leads to attempted solutions like DRM that try to technologically prevent access to the information within the data, which is only good until the first hacker cracks the code and distributes it themselves. Instead, if we build social and legal controls on use, we can give information more freely, but under terms set by each individual when they share that information. Enforced by social and legal rather than purely technological means, this makes the most of the low marginal cost of distributing online, while retaining control for contributors. Transaction data has dual ownership Image via Wikipedia Third, much interesting data is actually mutually owned… which means the other guy can already do whatever the heck they want with it. Consider web attention data, the stream of digital crumbs representing the websites we’ve visited and any interactions at each: all our purchases, all our blog posts, all our searches. Everything. Some folks argue that we own that data and therefore have the right to control the use of it. But so too do the owners of the websites we’ve been visiting. We don’t own our http log entries at Amazon. Amazon does. In fact, in every instance where two parties interact, where we engage in some transaction with someone else, both parties are co-creating that information. As such, both parties own it. So, if we tie the issue of control to ownership, then we’ve already lost the battle, because every service provider has solid claims to ownership over the information stored in their log files, just as we, as individuals, own the browsing history stored on our hard drive by Firefox, Internet Explorer and Chrome. In the movie Fast Times at Ridgemont High, in a confrontation with Mr. Hand, Spicoli argues “If I’m here and you’re here, doesn’t that make it our time?” Just like the time shared between Spicoli and Mr. Hand, the information created by visiting a website is co-created and co-owned by both the visitor and the website. Every single interaction between two endpoints on the web generates at least two owners of the underlying data. This is not a minor issue. The courts have already ruled that if an email is stored for any period of time on a server, the owner of that server has a right to read the email. So, when “my” email is out there at Gmail or AOL or on our company’s servers, know that it is also, legally, factually, and functionally, already their data. Yours, mine, & ours: Reality is complicated Fourth, when two parties come together for any reason, each brings their own data to the exchange. We need a framework that can handle that. Iain Henderson breaks down this complexity in a blog post about your data, my data, and our data, talking about an individual doing business with a vendor, for example, someone buying a car. “My data” means data that I, as an individual have that is related to the transaction. It could include the kind of car I’m looking for, my budget, and estimates of my spouse’s requirements to approve of a new purchase. “Your data” means data that the car dealer knows, including the actual cost of the vehicle, the number of units in inventory, the pace of sales, current buzz from other dealers. “Our Data” means information that both parties have in common. That could be Shared Information, explicitly given by one party to the other in the course of the deal, such as a social security number so the dealer could run a credit check. It could be Mutual Information, generated by the very act of the transaction, such as the final sale price of the vehicle. Or, it could be Overlapping Information, which each party happens to know independently, such as the Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) of a vehicle (which we found online before heading to the dealership). The ownership of “your” and “my” data is usually clear. However, ownership of the different types of “our” data is a challenge at best. To complicate matters further, every instance of “my data” is somebody else’s “your data”. In every case, there is this mutually reciprocal relationship between us and them. In the VRM case, we usually think of the individual as owning “my data” and the vendor as owning “your data”, but for the vendor, the reverse is true: to them their data is “my data” and the individual’s data is “your data”. Similar dynamics occur when the other party is an individual. I bring my data, you bring your data, and together we’ll engage with “our” data. We need an approach that respects and applies to everyone’s data, you, me, them, everybody. In these complex Venn diagrams of ownership, it is more important who controls the data than who owns it. We’ve already lost the crudest form of control–secrecy–and we are going to continue to lose more as we opt-in to seductive new services based on divulging more and more information: our purchase history, browsing activity, and real-world location data. But we still need to control how all this data is used, to protect our own interests while still enjoying the benefits of the great big copy machine that is the Internet. Taking back ownership is confrontational © Regien Paassen | Dreamstime.com Fifth, we don’t need to pick a fight to change the game. There is a lot of data out there that many of us believe we should have control over. I agree. A lot of people argue that we should have the right to exclude other people’s use because we own the data, because it’s ours in some legal, moral, or ethical framework. The problem is, those other people already have it, and they also believe that they are legitimate owners. In fact, many of them paid for that data, buying it from data aggregators who compile all sorts of things about people, from both public and private sources. This entire ecosystem of customer data is a multi-billion dollar business and every single player “owns” the data they are working with. So if we focus our energy in claiming ownership over that same data in order to take control, we are framing the conversation as a fight, a fight against a powerful, well-healed, well-funded, entrenched bunch of opponents. Most of these “opponents” are the very people we are trying to win over to our way of thinking. These are the vendors we want to embrace a new way to do business. These are the technologists we want to transform their proven, value-generating CRM systems to work with our data on our terms, instead of their data on their terms. Arguing over ownership puts these potential allies on the defensive, when what we really want is their collaboration. From Ownership to Authority, Rights, and Responsibilities Rather than building a regime based on data ownership, I believe we would be better served by building one based on authority, rights, and responsibilities. That is, based on Information Sharing. Who has the authority to control access and use of particular information? What rights does a party have in using and distributing a piece of information? What responsibilities does an information user have to others with respect to that information? Let’s stop arguing about who owns what and start figuring out how we can share information in ways that allow everyone to win. When we collect all of our information into a single conceptual repository, and then share access to it with service providers on our own terms, we create a high quality, highly relevant, curated personal data store. This allows us to bootstrap a control regime over all of our data in a way that creates new value for us and for our service providers. Now, instead of iTunes Genius or a Last.FM scrobbler only having access to our media use with their service, they can provide recommendations based on all the information stored in our personal audio data store. We get better recommendations and they get better data to drive their services. This personal data store is entirely under the authority of the user, sharing information with service providers according to specific rights and responsibilities. The Information Sharing approach neatly sidesteps the complexities involved in privacy and dataportability issues of the information already known by service providers. These remain serious issues, worth addressing. Resolving them will require long term investment in the legal, regulatory, moral, and political systems that govern our society. Fortunately, sharing the information in our personal data store can begin almost immediately once we have working specifications. This controlled sharing of information will dramatically increase our comfort level when revealing our intentions and interests. We would have control over the use–and would be able to prevent abuse–of that information, while making it easy for service providers to improve our lives in countless ways. At the Information Sharing Work Group at the Kantara Initiative, Iain Henderson and I are leading a conversation to create a framework for sharing information with service providers, online and off. We are coordinating with folks involved in privacy and dataportability and distinguish our effort by focusing on new information, information created for the purposes of sharing with others to enable a better service experience. Our goal is to create the technical and legal framework for Information Sharing that both protects the individual and enables new services built on previously unshared and unsharable information. In short, we are setting aside the questions of data ownership and focusing on the means for individuals to control that magical, digital pixie dust we sprinkle across every website we visit. Image by hegarty_david via Flickr Because the fact is, we want to share information. We want Google to know what we are searching for. We want Orbitz to know where we want to fly. We want Cars.com to know the kind of car we are looking for. We just don’t want that information to be abused. We don’t want to be spammed, telemarketed, and adverblasted to death. We don’t want companies stockpiling vast data warehouses of personal information outside of our control. We don’t want to be exploited by corporations leveraging asymmetric power to force us to divulge and relinquish control over our addresses, dates of birth, and the names of our friends and family. What we want is to share our information, on our terms. We want to protect our interests and enable service providers to do truly amazing things for us and on our behalf. This is the promise of the digital age: fabulous new services, under the guidance and control of each of us, individually. And that is precisely what Information Sharing work group at Kantara is enabling. The work is a continuation of several years of collaboration with Doc Searls and others at ProjectVRM. We’re building on the principles and conversations of Vendor Relationship Management and User Driven Services to create an industry standard for a legal and technical solution to individually-driven Information Sharing. Our work group, like all Kantara work groups, is open to all contributors–and non-contributing participants–at no cost. I invite everyone interested in helping create a user-driven world to join us. It should be an exciting future. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Award Number IIP-08488990. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
In the ProjectVRM Standards Committee discussions, we’ve talked quite a bit about a “One Night Stand” use case, where a personal data store is used with an online retailer and all personal data is erased–as much as possible–after the transaction. … Continue reading →
In the ProjectVRM Standards Committee discussions, we’ve talked quite a bit about a “One Night Stand” use case, where a personal data store is used with an online retailer and all personal data is erased–as much as possible–after the transaction. Teleconference 2008 06 18 Teleconference 2008 07 02 Teleconference 2008 08 13 Teleconference 2008 09 24 Teleconference 2008 10 08 Face to Face 2008 October The premise is simple: if users know they are safe giving personal data, they will give it more freely. Limits on long term data mining (and its attendant offensive behavior of junk mail, spam, and telemarketing) paradoxically increase data sharing and enhance the ability of vendors to provide more meaningful engagement at the moment of the transaction. Less long term data retention leads to more real-time data provided by users, resulting in better customer experiences, and more profit for vendors. Until recently, this was a theoretical argument, a belief by those of us promoting VRM. As Doc Searls puts it, “A free customer is more valuable than a captive one.” Now we have evidence of just how valuable that can be. Jared Spool shares with us the real-world example of a redesign in the direction of the “One Night Stand” that created $300 million in value in the first year: [excerpt edited for brevity. see full article for details] The form was simple. The fields were Email Address and Password. The buttons were Login and Register. The link was Forgot Password. It was the login form for the site. It’s a form users encounter all the time. How could they have problems with it? The problem wasn’t as much about the form’s layout as it was where the form lived. Users would encounter it after they filled their shopping cart with products they wanted to purchase and pressed the Checkout button. It came before they could actually enter the information to pay for the product. “I’m Not Here To Be In a Relationship” We were wrong about the first-time shoppers. They did mind registering. They resented having to register when they encountered the page. As one shopper told us, “I’m not here to enter into a relationship. I just want to buy something.” Some first-time shoppers couldn’t remember if it was their first time, becoming frustrated as each common email and password combination failed. We were surprised how much they resisted registering. Without even knowing what was involved in registration, all the users that clicked on the button did so with a sense of despair. Many vocalized how the retailer only wanted their information to pester them with marketing messages they didn’t want. Some imagined other nefarious purposes of the obvious attempt to invade privacy. (In reality, the site asked nothing during registration that it didn’t need to complete the purchase: name, shipping address, billing address, and payment information.) Not So Good For Repeat Customers Either Repeat customers weren’t any happier. Except for a very few who remembered their login information, most stumbled on the form. They couldn’t remember the email address or password they used. Remembering which email address they registered with was problematic – many had multiple email addresses or had changed them over the years. When a shopper couldn’t remember the email address and password, they’d attempt at guessing what it could be multiple times. These guesses rarely succeeded. Some would eventually ask the site to send the password to their email address, which is a problem if you can’t remember which email address you initially registered with. (Later, we did an analysis of the retailer’s database, only to discover 45% of all customers had multiple registrations in the system, some as many as 10. We also analyzed how many people requested passwords, to find out it reached about 160,000 per day. 75% of these people never tried to complete the purchase once requested.) The form, intended to make shopping easier, turned out to only help a small percentage of the customers who encountered it. (Even many of those customers weren’t helped, since it took just as much effort to update any incorrect information, such as changed addresses or new credit cards.) Instead, the form just prevented sales – a lot of sales. The $300,000,000 Fix The designers fixed the problem simply. They took away the Register button. In its place, they put a Continue button with a simple message: “You do not need to create an account to make purchases on our site. Simply click Continue to proceed to checkout. To make your future purchases even faster, you can create an account during checkout.” The results: The number of customers purchasing went up by 45%. The extra purchases resulted in an extra $15 million the first month. For the first year, the site saw an additional $300,000,000. Now that’s real money. Hat tip to Abhijit Nadgouda of iface thoughts.
Doc Searls recently brought my attention to a White Paper by Phil Windley, about his company, Kynetx. It does a good job explaining the thinking behind their architecture, and raises some questions that, for me, challenge some underlying assumptions and … Continue reading →
Doc Searls recently brought my attention to a White Paper by Phil Windley, about his company, Kynetx. It does a good job explaining the thinking behind their architecture, and raises some questions that, for me, challenge some underlying assumptions and business choices. Problem Domain The distributed nature of the web is a big part of its power–nobody needs to ask permission from a central authority to use it or create with it. However, that disaggregation limits the cohesion for sophisticated uses, leaving users to hobble together ad-hoc mash-ups of value from multiple, diverse service providers. For example, the average travel planner spends 29 days from their first query to their first purchase. No tool I know of facilitates that entire process effectively. Solving this problem in a general way—while retaining the authority of the individual and the flexibility of open systems—is perhaps the greatest opportunity for VRM. The personal data store and VRM relationship services are two prongs of an architectural shift for enabling this kind of aggregation while remaining open. Once you put the user in the driver’s seat, with coherent controls over the flow and the data, the experience can integrate around the user, even as they drive anywhere on the Internet. Solution Kynetx’s solution is built on one primary capability: A rules engine (and language) for contextual customization based on strong identity-based claims, using the user-centric Identity of Information Cards. This puts Kynetx squarely in the web augmentation service business. Adaptive Blue (and their Glue product) is perhaps the most sophisticated approach to this space, but Yahoo’s Toolbar also augments web pages, as does Skype (putting its SkypOut button on any phone # it recognizes), and the granddaddies of all web-augmentation services are the ad blocker plug-ins that remove banner ads on websites. I distinguish web augmentation from web media enhancements, like PDF and Flash and Java, in that the latter are embeddable or downloadable extensions to the core HTML/http architecture of the web, while augmentation services provide third-party manipulation of website presentation on behalf of the user. They actually tweak the web page as the user sees it, rather than offering websites a new way to package content or functionality. Web augmentation isn’t new, but it is gaining adoption and breadth. There is a low-grade market war going on in this space. While browsers define the official battleground of the World Wide Web; augmentation services are the guerilla warriors of next generation browsing. The approach that reaches ubiquity first will create significant value throughout the architecture: for users, software vendors, and service providers. So, the question that comes to my mind is where does Kynetx fit into all of this? The value proposition of a rules-engine for customization is powerful, if that engine makes it easy to leverage strong identity. Every website will, imo, want to take advantage of the unique value of user-centric identity and Information Cards in particular. However, rewriting your customization to do that will take resources and that will slow adoption. If Kynetx can simplify how websites plug- in to the Identity meta-layer that sounds like a real value. Gaps There are however, several gaps that I see in Kynetix’s approach mapped out in the white paper. First, who are the target developers: websites or Third party services. Or both? It’s not clear to me if the primary authors of KRL rulesets (and hence Kynetx’s customers) will be the destination website developers or third party augmentation services. For example, . Adaptive Blue‘s Glue augments web pages so that things like movies can be recognized across domains for social commentary, ratings, and sharing. That means that Glue modifies the presentation of web pages at IMDB, Netflix, Amazon, Blockbuster, etc. In this pattern, it is the third-party, Glue, that would be running KRL rulesets, not the websites. Is this the intended architecture for Kynetx? Is the point of the Kynetx Information Card to provide authorization by the user to allow services like Glue to augment their web experience, while the rest of the plug- in handles injection into the web page within the browser? Or, is the main point that web services themselves would leverage Kynetx’s Information Card approach to manage third party identity for customization? For example, so Hertz could seamlessly provide AAA or AARP discounts if, and only if, the appropriate AAA or AARP information cards (KIX) are presented by the user? In this case, Hertz writes the customization, but doesn’t need to know upfront what the user’s affiliations might be. If the first case is intended, the white paper doesn’t do a good job explaining how this fits into a larger, open ecosystem, nor does it highlight this unique architectural opportunity. If a user wants Orbitz to help augment its travel planning experience, even when it is at Expedia or Southwest airlines or Hilton.com, it would be great to do that in a secure, authorized, privacy-sensitive way. But it isn’t quite clear if this is the point of Kynetx’s approach. (Although it is a great opportunity, one that r-buttons and SwitchBook see in the not-so-far future). If the second case is the goal, it isn’t clear to me why Kynetx is better than other customization frameworks. With a card selector and cards issued from the right authority, users can already present AAA or AARP credentials to websites, which in turn can integrate that information into their existing CMS or other presentation code (Drupal, PHP, perl, Ruby-on-Rails, etc.). If the value proposition is in speed-to-market for identity-based customization, then the white paper needs to make that case first and foremost. If that’s the goal, then it also suggests a business model, which I talk about in a bit. It could also be that both of these are part of the approach: allowing both the website developer and third parties augment the web experience based on strong identity. This is the general idea behind r-buttons and would almost certainly speed deployment. However, the white paper doesn’t address the issues of contention when multiple providers want to augment the same page. Given the open-ended javascript functionality associated with a KIX, this could be a challenge. Second, isn’t re-aggregation actually about creating a coherent context? While the Kynetx approach allows users to present a particular relationship at a particular website, that doesn’t seem to solve the stated problem. I don’t see how it actually achieves a cross-web aggregated experience. In fact, it seems that the best aggregated experience should combine many relationship cards at many different services. In the 29-day travel planning scenario, won’t users need to send their AAA and AARP cards to every site they visit? (Or some large subset?) Does the card selector require a ceremony for every website every session? Or just once and then it is a permanent approval, such as confirming once with Expedia that the user is a AAA member? Managing this A x B complexity with A Information Cards and B websites scales poorly if every site has a distinct ceremony–and even worse if each card presented at each site is a distinct ceremony. This apparent model of KIX based aggregation seems to miss an opportunity, one that is near to my heart as the core of the Search Map architecture for User-driven Search. It seems to me that for a given web-based task–such as travel planning–what you need is a user-driven personal data store that tracks the user’s progress across the Web. This data store should be 100% transparent, 100% editable, and seamlessly transferable/accessible to authorized vendors under terms controled by the user. We call our version of this a Search Map, an electronic document that provides the user a concrete way to manage and express their Search intent. It is also a seamless way to manage and express user context. In the white paper, Phil asserts that “users are freed from managing episode context themselves” as a core benefit. But, I don’t think this is actually a benefit. Attempting to achieve that goal could end up being more patronizing than useful, following in the footsteps of “Clippy” the Microsoft Windows help agent which tried to figure out the context and help users, but failed miserably. “I see you are writing a letter. Would you like assistance?” Ack! It’s not that users don’t want to manage their context, it’s that they haven’t been given simple, value-producing tools to do so. Consider spreadsheets: it’s not that users want to balance the budget on a computer—doing budgets on a computer isn’t inherently rewarding. It’s that spreadsheets make it easy to get value out of balancing their budget on the computer. Managing KIX across 29 days of travel planning and potentially a hundred+ websites sounds like a chore… unless we have a coherent expression of the context (in something like a Search Map, perhaps) that is easy to use and immediately useful. Third, over-centralization limits scale. The Kynetx model, as I understand it, doesn’t scale to the full World Wide Web, because it centralizes two core functions: resolving requests for augmentation and the validation of injection javascript as safe, private, and secure. Both of these constrain the growth opportunity for a KRL-based approach to augmenting web services. First, it places the core usage-time server demand on a single service. Given the business model of charging for ruleset evaluations, there is no obvious incentive for Kynetx to release an open source reference implementation to make it easier for alternate KRE service providers. In fact, there is every expectation that Kynetx will be motivated to “win the market share” battle and be the primary KRE service. Which, unfortunately, makes it just another silo, and will face precisely the same sort of scaling issues that plague Twitter. Second, by making Kinetx the arbiter of “quality” it places a single entity in control ofwhat constitutes “safe”. Even with good intentions, such centralized moral authority is not just dangerous, it alienates potential innovation. Nobody wants to be forced to seek permission for their new functionality. That was, IMO, the primary reason the World Wide Web dominated AOL so quickly. The way to reach web scale is to make it absolutely trivial for /anyone/ to play the game. Several open source implementations and open standards enabled anyone who wanted to, to set up their own web server and try out the World Wide Web as a service provider. And, despite that lack of central control, lots of companies made lots of money providing enhanced software to manage those systems. So don’t fall for the illusion that central control is required or desirable for a big financial win. Signing software is understood technology; we can enable signed KIX functionality with a validated identity as a first step towards quality control. Then, by opening up the validation service–and separating it from the distribution/matching of those KIX functions, we can allow software developers and service providers the freedom to innovate and provide their own approaches to what is valid and what isn’t. Some providers will choose to accept ANY signed KIX and simply track reputation. Others will charge a fee for developers, but run through a quality control check and review. By opening it up, you allow users and developers the freedom to manage KIX quality however they like, without building a presumptive “download at your own risk” ecosystem. With Kynetx the sole authority on “quality” for KIX functionality, we would have both a technical and a political bottleneck that would retard the adoption of a generalized approach to the disaggregated web experience. [Btw, it would be great if there were a name for the javascript injected into the browser when a KRL rule fires after evaluating the context and the user identity. This is currently just the “associated KIX functionality”, which is a bit wordy.] Fourth, what about privacy and data rights management? On the whole, it isn’t clear to me what data might be sent around in the claims of various Information Cards, but there is no discussion in the white paper about the data rights associated with that information. If I’m telling Hertz that I’m an AARP member, can they use that data to start sending me junk mail or SPAM targeting AARP members? Frankly, this is a hole in the entire user-centric Identity framework. OpenID Attribute Exchange and Information Cards allow users to use a third party service for the management and presentment of minimally sophisticated facets of identity (much better than username & password), but neither inherently enables users to specify a data rights regime for the claims or attributes so provisioned. In effect, we’ve made it easy for users to provide additional data about themselves, but missed the opportunity for users to easily control the use of that data. Since Kynetx has a goal of seamlessly augmenting users’ web experience, isn’t it incumbant on them to assure that seamlessness both protects users’ right to privacy and prevents unintended over-customization based on supposedly private data? This is another manifestation of the “Tivo thinks I’m gay” problem, where Tivo analyzes viewing behavior and assumes things about the user, with no way for the user to manage their profile. The data rights problem happens because there is nothing to keep Tivo from telling Hertz, GE, or NBC they think the user is gay. The problem in the Kynetx approach happens when service providers start passing presumably private data to third parties—and users lack the means to control that leakage once the service provider knows certain data. This level of data rights control needs to be built in from the start for VRM and user-driven applications. Business Model At the core, I think the business model needs rethinking. Although a CPM-based pricing for KRL evaluations seems to align the value proposition directly with costs, it actually presents more risk and less control to potential customers than other models. It also presents greater risk and less stability for Kynetx itself. What service providers and developers want to see in a technology platform is one with a free entry point (so you can get testing and trying it ASAP, even if a production system would need a for-fee license), a constrained, predictable cost structure, and economies of scale. Charging per evaluation offers none of these. This model instead creates an artificial scarcity and then charges by the drop. What you want is to create abundance and sell buckets and hoses and pumps. Doc calls this the “because of” effect. Constraining KRL evaluation to support a pay-by-drink business model will artificially constrain adoption. Instead, run to ubiquity and sell the best tools for leveraging the system you’ve helped create. At the same time, the evaluation of rulesets will have highly variable demand, with great spikes and drops far outside of Kynetx’s control. Tying revenue to that demand volatility means an unpredictable, wild revenue profile, flattening out only with insanely large numbers of users. This works for mega services like Amazon Web Services, but for a start up moving from initial revenue to predictable cash flow, it can be unsettling. In contrast, an IDE sales model or subscription based service with monthly fees bounds developer expenses and stabilizes the revenue curve. I like the idea of KRL rulesets. Currently, SwitchBook is planning on using Javascript, RegEx, and XPath, for similar evaluations. That approach not only feels ad-hoc, it is. I’d like to see a unified approach that is flexible, cross-platform, and supported by a good development and test environment. I think Kynetx could go far by creating an open source platform for KRL rulesets, then providing a robust IDE and testing framework for those who want to manage KRL rules to meet business needs. I think this is nicely pointed to in the mention in the White Paper of A/B testing with different KRLs. This is precisely the kind of sophistication that businesses will need to make the most of KRLs and which can easily be separated from the core infrastructure that enables KRLs in an open way for everybody. Also, the consulting opportunities to analyze, customize, and manage KRL rulesets is a huge business opportunity. Doing that well is likely to remain a black art for a long time to come; helping Fortune 1000 companies do it well should be lucrative. As Dale Olds put it referring to Novel’s Bandit Project: First, enable an open identity-metasystem, then sell tools to companies to help them manage it. Collaborations I like the value proposition of platform-independent identity-based customization. It fits well with VRM’s r-buttons, MyDex’s Personal Data Store service, and SwitchBook’s Search Maps. I think there’s still some brain work to be done figuring out how we can all support each other and simultaneously build sustainable business models, but I’ve no doubt there’s a way if we all invest in exploring those opportunities. Although I focused on questions and concerns about Kynetx in this post, I have great respect for Phil and hope to work with him as both our companies–and the entire VRM community–build out viable solutions to these kinds of problems.
At last month’s Internet Identity Workshop and the subsequent DataSharing Summit, Markus S and Drummond Reed unpacked several ideas about r-cards, which, to a certain extent, are an evolution of the Information Card at the heart of CardSpace. Going into … Continue reading →
At last month’s Internet Identity Workshop and the subsequent DataSharing Summit, Markus S and Drummond Reed unpacked several ideas about r-cards, which, to a certain extent, are an evolution of the Information Card at the heart of CardSpace. Going into IIW, I understood r-cards simply as a hybrid of InfoCard’s managed and personal card models. Managed cards are issued by another party–all the data associated/transmitted with that card is controlled by that managing party, while personal cards are self-asserted, allowing individuals to serve as their own card provider, controlling all of the associated data. R-cards then, allow a managing party to co-control a card with the user–with some data controlled by the managing party and some controlled by the user. However, during the IIW demo of r-card, I had an epiphany about how powerful the r-card is, once we actually allow the user to manage the personal claims through multiple, dereferenceable links. <o></o>One issue that came up during the demo was that if the “personal” side of the r-card is manually entered claims, such as contact information, then the user is creating a management nightmare: duplicate claims would need to be entered and maintained across many different r-cards. The more r-cards, the worse the problem. The “obvious” solution discussed at the session was to allow the user to specify specific claims that are served by other IdPs, such as a Personal Address Manager. And for completeness sake, let’s note that such claims could be mashed up from multiple other IdPs, not just a single one. Thus, any number of claims from a particular IdP could act as a sort of sub-card, combining with other subcards at presentation time. The net result of this is a realization that that perhaps the most interesting thing about r-cards is their use as dynamic cards or aggregate cards or mashup identity cards. That’s pretty cool in itself. However, it also struck me that this also potentially fixes usability problems around authorizing a bunch of vendor’s (M) access to identity claims at a variety of different identity providers (N). This potentially requires N points of authorization and authentication for each M vendors (or relying parties). Sub-cards (or r-cards) may combine that task at the point of presentation for much greater user understanding and simplicity. Since the Card Selector is itself a trusted point of authorization, we should be able to use the “mashup” gesture as explicit authorization for relying parties to access the claims specified in the sub-cards. That is, the UI of creating the r-card/mashup card/dynamic card also explicitly approves access to specific claims from multiple IdPs, since after all, the selector is where you select which claims to present to relying parties. This adjustment to the Information Card ceremony greatly simplifies the user experience, while retaining all the power of distributed claims at appropriate IdPs. For example, it would allow me to specify my Passport # to United Airlines, as a verifiable claim served by the US Secretary of State IdP (which should be trusted by UA), streamlining any international travel I might do, while retaining my contact info at my Personal Address Manager. All with the same authorization ceremony I use with any information card relying party.<o> </o> This realization was, for me, the most surprising insight into the power of the r-card. In fact, I’m wondering if the name “r-card” captures it best.
Bart Stevens recently suggested a breakdown on the potential economic impact of VRM, based largely on a post by Steve Rubel arguing that $1B is wasted in online advertising today. First, I anticipate the Personal Data Store to become a … Continue reading →
Bart Stevens recently suggested a breakdown on the potential economic impact of VRM, based largely on a post by Steve Rubel arguing that $1B is wasted in online advertising today. First, I anticipate the Personal Data Store to become a design pattern that underlies other VRM services, rather than a service by itself. In fact, a PD isn’t really a PD unless it enables VRM services explicitly… Personal Data Stores aren’t just online storage like Amazon’s S3. Second, I think the $1 Billion number is far too small. Steve is only estimating the CPM costs for display ads that are literally missed by users during eye tracking studies. That’s an intriguing number because those ads truly are wasted… there isn’t even any brand exposure because the ads are not even seen. It’s like paying for ads in a magazine that is never opened by a real reader. On the other hand, there are still plenty of ads that are seen by the wrong people and CPC ads that are clicked on by the wrong people. Note that for the “right” people, those ads arguably generate useful brand exposure, so they aren’t wasted. When advertising starts with the advertiser, it inherently wastes money, as it inevitably buys placement in ineffective or misaligned media. By now it is an old chestnut that advertisers waste half their budget–they just don’t know which half. Sometimes advertising is an investment in exploring potential markets… the goal is the data gained in the test marketing, which isn’t entirely a waste. Other times advertising is educational outreach where the goal isn’t so much to trigger a sale, but instead to introduce people to new products and services. Sometimes this is called demand generation. And that still leaves a vast amount of waste, buying media (offline or online) that just doesn’t perform or create any value. The potential savings in these areas is not only missing from Rubel’s analysis, I’d wager it is far more than $1 billion. The huge potential of VRM is to turn these models inside-out, by providing a scalable pipeline directly into the product development and sales divisions of capable firms. Instead of Vendors guessing what people want, VRM services can cost-effectively tell Vendors what people truly do want. If the product is available, the sales team can enable purchase and delivery. If the product doesn’t exist, the Vendor can create it if demand is sufficient. This new paradigm is exactly the shift from Attention to Intention that Doc and I have been advocating. The Attention game is the world of traditional advertising, where the industrial manufacturer competes in mass media to get the attention of the right consumers in order to generate demand for their products and services. Given that attention, they seduce, cajole, and entertain in hopes of winning new sales. The Intention game, on the other hand, starts with explicit requests from the user to fulfill actual demand. Sometimes that intention will be nascent, needing further exploration and discovery. But eventually, for the segment of the population that finds something they want or need, that intention shifts from educating oneself about available options to seeking specific satisfaction, that is, buying a solution. Because intention starts with the user’s commitment to take the relationship to the next level, it immediately takes a vast amount of guesswork and wasted advertising out of the equation. This guesswork and wasted advertising is probably closer to $100 billion/year, but that’s just my gut feeling. And that number only addresses the loss side of the equation, that is, the money we save by not wasting product development and advertising dollars. It ignores the value of products and services that today languish as innumerable missed opportunities–missed because companies have no way to efficiently gauge true market demand. There are undoubtedly services and products that exist–or could be profitably offered today–which fail to reach customers because we don’t have a suitable mechanism for connecting the right customers with the right companies. This potential to close the gap between potential sales and unmet demand, is simply too large to estimate. The Cost-Per-Action/Pay-for-Performance business model of Affiliate Marketing is likely to continue to transform the ad industry, significantly reducing billions in unnecessary expenses, including the $1B wasted on unseen display ads in Rubel’s analysis. It won’t be until we transform explicit intent into new offerings and new sales that we unleash the vast potential that is VRM.